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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still